Thoughts from Aureus CEO Kari Firestone:
We cannot trust polls, surveys, or predictions. How does that translate to my business, investments, which is totally based on aligning expectations with prices? We need to be more skeptical about predictions we hear from Wall Street, from corporations, and, of course, from pollsters. The most surprising thing about this election is that with so much information available in our data-driven age, we cannot figure out how use that data to predict an outcome of a presidential election at all. In regard to my business, this means we should value independent thought, cynicism, and creative ideas even more.
Also, since Donald Trump seems to have motivated all his supporters to get out and vote, despite many personal flaws, it shows the power of charisma, crowd building, and a strong social media brand. His voters wanted to be part of his aura, and that can apply to investors who flock to stocks, so we need to be on the lookout for those companies who will attract hoards of fans.
Finally, since Trump has been able to deflect criticism very successfully, and alter his positions frequently, it’s possible that he will be a very different governing president than people assume. Just because the market today is reacting to how it thinks his policies will favor or hurt certain industries, that doesn’t mean we should assume consistency in those positions.